Global diamond supply could be deficit by 2020, says GlobalData

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Global rough diamond production is set to rise from 127 million carats (Mct) in 2015 to 134.5 Mct by 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.

The company’s latest report states that this growth will be supported by the expansions at operating mines including Lukoil Oil Company’s Vladimir Grib project in Russia, the Diavik and Ekati Diamond mines in Canada, and Rio Tinto’s Argyle mine in Australia. However, the global output is expected to decline after 2019 as a result of reserve depletions in the Argyle, Diavik and Ekati mines, which account for 18% of global production as of 2016.

Cliff Smee, GlobalData’s Head of Research and Analysis for Mining, explains: “Global demand for diamond jewellery is expected to record a CAGR of 6.4%, with China and India together expected to consume around 50% of the global consumption, while global supply of polished diamond is expected to grow at an average of 4% per year over the next four years to 163Mct in 2019, resulting in a demand-supply gap of around 5-6% post-2019.

However, this supply deficit could be worsened by the fact that 47% of global diamond production comes from countries of high political risk such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia. Supply could fall below projected levels if political disruption affects these projects.

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- Comments provided by Cliff Smee, GlobalData’s Head of Research and Analysis for Mining.

- Information based on GlobalData’s report: Global Diamond Mining to 2020.

- This report was built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis conducted by GlobalData’s team of industry experts.


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